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when the fed blunders with an accidental release of information that we'll be talking about. and that information hints that it may be taking its foot off the pedal sooner rather than later. so there's a lot to chew on today, as stocks continue their melt up. very special and exclusive market guests to sort it all out for us today. the great mario gabelli is with us. top economist and noted bear, david rosenberg, who, by the way, may be having a change of heart on this market. and he'll explain why. the great billionaire, sam zell, the real estate whiz is also with us. in fact, sam will be maria's special co-host at 4:00 p.m. eastern. so stay tuned next hour for that. also with us, exclusively, imf head, christine lagarde. she's watching what's happening in our stock market and with our fed very closely. she's also issuing a huge warning about the banking sector, that you'll want to hear later in today's program. also, get this, the kpmg partner who leaked that inside information has put out a statement and now his lawyer is going to be talking to us first. you'll want to he
conference in washington dc. she said the fed's recent monetary policies and purchasing assets and lowering interest rates have contributed to improvements in the economy. she also commented on a report by the government account ability office. -- criticizing the federal reserve and the office of the comptroller of the currency for creating a pre--- bureaucratic maze. this portion of her remarks is about 30 minutes. a report was issued that criticize the fed for fraud review of foreclosure and documents. the sutures and monitoring consulting firms. let me say that the fed undertook an independent foreclosure review in order to borrowers who -- had been financially injured by servicer airburst. we worked jointly with the comptroller of the currency. they took the lead in this effort area and they supervise most of the servicers that were involved. prime objective was to get help to borrowers as quickly as we possibly could. 4 turned out that over million borrowers at the servicers were likely affect did -- affected. to themremediation turned out to be an immensely complex, slow, and costly p
, look at it, $15.88. early on in the day this is thanks in part to the fed minutes released way earlier than they normally are and immediately the market took off on this news and strong economic data through europe and china helps to weigh in on the big party. the big story of the day is the tech stocks and the small caps moving pretty strongly today. really very much the winner when it comes to percentage gains. the russell 2000, that is jumping 15 points. also up. what does it suggest to you, the investor? it looks like investors are eager to embrace riskier stocks on a day like today. a switch from recent rallies led by the consumer and health care sectors. why is today any different? the fact is we got the fed minutes report in essence is that the fed is still very much in the quantitative easing game, stocks positive and continues to be so today. people are sort of getting that message the fed is still very much engaged in propping up the market. let's get to the floor source of the traders think about this. let the new york stock exchange, nicole petallides weighing on the nyse.
. >> and once again, of course, it's a lot of fed induced buying. today we're talking to former federal reserve governor kevin warsh weighing in on whether the stimulus measures are actually keeping inflation too low. his take on whether the fed might dial it back. >> all right. let's get you caught up on the markets. how they're trading today. it has been a gradual rise higher all day. we're sitting near the highs right now. the dow up 120 points. it was 132-point gain. we need to get around 14,865 to get an all-time high. we're not there. we are there -- let's see. for the nasdaq it's a 12-year high. got to keep all these records straight here. the nasdaq any second now we'll show you the nasdaq, i think. there we go. up 33 points at 3312. a 12-year high. you can see sideways action for the last couple hours. there's the s&p. 1595 is right about at t all time high, previous all time high. we're waiting to see if we can reach the previous intraday high at 1597. so many things to keep an eye on today. in today's closing bell exchange as we talk about all of this, anthony chan from chase wealth
money borrowing, supply by the fed, and that big leverage, or big valuation differential between stocks and bonds, as the preview guest alluded to. if so, the markets still could drift higher. >> well, i would imagine so, given what we've got going on with the federal reserve. that's really the point here. you don't really want to get in front of the fed. so in terms of allocating capital today, how would you do it? >> well, we're looking strongly at u.s. industrials, especially in what we call the ema energy, manufacturing, and agriculture sectors. and also, we strongly believe that every portfolio ought to have 5% to 10% in gold, especially gold mining stocks -- >> i would have lost my money if -- >> yes, but you've got to look at it as a hedge. today it did fine, or it was earlier today. it does, it's a hedge against all the things north korea, all the things you've been talking about daily. >> maria, i would like to jump in here real quick, if i can. >> yes, please? >> it's fascinating to me that we're seeing increased volatility, the market got bit up again from the lows today. but
for the equity markets. >> fed begins its meeting, ecp this week. earnings, what do you do? what are you doing today? >> today i'm not doing anything to. >> why. >> there's a lot of risk. i'm sitting with these guys. there's nothing more i need to to, scott. but i'm long in the market. here are the concerns. i'll be interested to hear what steve has to say, but i've not spoken to a person yet who doesn't believe that draghi's going to cut rates. >> why don't you get in front of that. >> i am. i'm long. if he doesn't, the market comes down. it may come down significantly. we've got a jobs number coming up. it wouldn't be the disastrous number we had, because there will be some snap back. in terms of the fed, there's no news with the fed. it's going to be just like it always was. we're going to maintain our approach. i'm not overly long, not fully invested. i've one of those guys calling for a pull back. only a couple percent. >> a guy sent out a note asking whether risk is at risk. if the jobs disappoint big time, the word on the street seems to be that the jobs report is likely to be disappoin
fresh all-time highs on the s&p despite the early release of the fed minutes because they met yesterday. more on that now on cnbc with scott wapner and the "halftime report." >>> all right, simon, thanks so much. welcome to "the halftime report" coming to you today from the new york stock exchange. four hours until the record closing on the street. the dow industrial is up 125. we are at the highs of the day. the s&p 500 setting a record high today. here's what we are following on "the half." oops, did the feds early release of the minutes cost you money? steve liesman is joining us to break it all down. >>> golden opportunity, goldman sachs says they are short the yellow metal. no two of the traders take on that in a hot debate. >>> and the s&p 500 is hitting a new record intraday high, a broad-based move we are seeing with tech finally leading the way. big dividend payers continue to work in this market that leads us to this question. is your best move to keep betting on the big question? we are trading with john, jerry and steven, brian kelly, steve wise, first to you. >> this is an
.6% growth for the s&p 500, for the first earning. is that going to be a factor, or is this all about the fed? >> you know, maria, i hate to say it, but we're almost in an earnings agnostic period now because of the fed and central bank easing. there are two major markets up over the last two months. that's japan and the u.s. both have expanding balance sheets. all other economies, with countries that have detracting balance sheets are down, actually. we believe, firmly, at brookstone capital in the fed and the central bank put that is propelling this market higher. >> all right. so it keeps going. greg ip, your sense in terms of earnings. do you think they're going to disappoint, in any way? we've got a market that's up 10%, year-to-date. of course, we know that the federal reserve is probably not going to stop. although, is that how you feel, or do you believe in this idea that they're going to start unwinding this summer? >> i think that's what the new news is in the last 48 hours, maria. if you thought a week ago that the fed was going to do about $1 trillion of bond buying this year in q
. they're tired of earning very little in bond funds. >> that's the bottom line, michael. the fed is going thereby. >> the fed's already there. but isn't the bottom line also that when the individual investor starts to become bullish, we start to see flows into the market. >> do you think we're there already? >> we're starting to already see that. don't you think that's really, actually, the start of maybe a bit of euphoria capturing the this market. and the first guest talked about -- the second guest talked about that the market was fairly valued. well, fairly valued is not a discount. i mean, if you're playing a momentum market because of the fed, the fed's not going to be here forever. when the fed goes away -- >> when are they going to go away? let's face it -- >> that's why we're up 10% right now, maria. >> exactly. how much more -- >> how far can the patient run who's dead on adrenaline. yeah, he'll run far -- >> jim moffett, jump in here. how are you allocating capital right here? >> i'm sorry, what? >> how are you allocate ing capital here? >> well, as a firm, we like the
reserve in 2007. i started on the fed be about one week after -- actually the first scene about the first direction of the buck. it's all my fault. august 9th 2007 is where i start which is the first day the european central bank intervened to prop up the european banking system. we got through that. i would not put the two together at the time, but from that point on i had been gathering ideas and france and trying to have seeped through what it all mantegna's of its series a thinking about a book in late 2010 and series reporting of the book started in two dozen 11. >> host: the cover shows, you looked at a number of central bankers, not only ben bernanke, but also mervyn king in the uk. one from the european central bank, successors. less talk a little bit about these three men who are on the cover of the book. first, ben bernanke. what you think people ought to know? >> guest: the fascinating story. i think in some ways he is an accidental fed chairman, one of the most consequential central bankers in history really and no doubt one of the most important leaders in the history of the
went off the track in some respect with roosevelt. that the idea of the fed and managing the economy was kind of the departure point. yes? >> well it's like a narcotic. for a while the big deficits we've had, all the money printing from the fed worked. it did stimulate the economy. we had some growth. over time it becomes habit-forming. the politicians can't live without it. vent ally it begins to... >> jon: give me some of that. it then becomes debilitating. by then -- and that's where we are when we've had the serial bubbles, the dot-com total collapse. they reflaited the bubble and everybody got on board and we had the housing boom. that was phony. the credit boom and finally wall street collapsed in 2008. they bailed it out like mad. the market collapsed. the average guy lost, you know, 50, 60%, got refried after the first time being fried. now they've reflaited it a third time. guess what? >> jon: on wall street they have we're back to where we were 4,750 days ago. if you're doing long division that's 13 years. >> jon: hold on. divide by 365. jon: you knew that before you came o
working off of a portfolio enhancing drugs. the new p.e.d., and that's the fed. and i don't see the fed going anywhere anytime soon and i still see cheap money. no, this is not the beginning of a collapse or the beginning of a correction. absolutely not. >> look, we heard reports earlier. we heard from the official at the san francisco federal reserve, the suggestion that we are actually going to see the federal reserve ending the buying of treasuries and bonds at the end of this year, possibly as soon as the summer. >> maria, you're right. and that would be great. it would say, gee, we've finally gotten our big boy pants on. >> it's not going to be great for equities. >> a great win overall. >> what do you mean -- >> at some point, we're going to have to take our medicine, maria. that's the only way we'll be able to do it. finally getting the fed to take its foot off the throat of this market, a free market. not the artificial market. >> i don't disagree with that. i'm just saying, is the market really prepared for that? yes, you're right, it's totally manipulated, but it's not going t
part of the year and a spring swoon. it's something the fed chief warned about earlier this year. you talk about the unemployment rate dropping. it dropped because look on your screen. 496,000 people dropped out of the labor force. the participation rate now the lowest since 1979. >> let's be kashl about the unemployment rate because it it measures a moving target. it it measures those people participating in the labor force. it's a smaller percentage, that sounds good, but it's measuring a smaller number of people. >> that right there is the participation rate. the people in it. a few bright spots. professional business services added jobs. but we saw losses in retail. what economists are arguing is whether you've seen the expiration of the payroll tax holiday that deny have an effect. maybe it was starting to bite and that could be reflected in the retail jobs. or maybe there's a reason, sequester talk happening. people are feeling less confident and spending less and that's translating into fewer retail jobs. there's the underemployment rate. 13.8%, slight improvement, still too hi
the fed. you look at 2013, we're in april. coming into this year, we were going to cut spending. we were going to raise taxes. these were scary things for the market. we've been through both of those things, and the market and the economy keeps moving ahead. that's a very strong signal. >> neil hennessey, what about you. do you want to fight the fed here, fight this tape? >> i'm not going to fight. where are you going to find a better market than the u.s. market, number one? and number two, everyone says the market should take a breath, it should go down, it should do this. give me some reasonings. you look at any reasonings from a financial standpoint, and this market is still undervalued anywhere from 11 to 30%. and i sort of look at it, this is an opportunity. if people want to sell off and get out, then i think it's time for people that have been on the sidelines to get in. but i think the market overall is in very good shape. the economy is not as bad as people think it is. and i think it's going a lot higher. >> where are you getting this 11 to 30% potentially undervalued? how do y
, a pull back at swoon. it's something the fed chief warned about earlier this year. you talk about the unemployment rate dropping. it dropped because 496,000 people dropped out of the labor force. the participation rate now the lowest since 1969. >> let's be careful about the unemployment rate. it measures a moving target. it measures those people who are participating in the labor force. it's a smaller percentage, but it's measuring a smaller overall number of people. >> that right there is the participation rate, the people in it. a few bright spots. professional business services added jobs, so did health care. >> which we always do. >> but we saw losses in retail. they're discussing whether you have seen the expiration of the pay roll tax holiday that didn't have an affect, maybe it was starting to bite, and that could be reflected in the retail jobs or maybe there's some reason, sequester talk, all kinds of things happening in the economy, europe, that people are feeling less confident and that's translating into fewer retail jobs. there's something called the underemployment
to see what those numbers are as we get them. >> greg, you covered the fed so much. all this week, there's been a debate. just last week, we debated about whether or not we were going to be talking about deflation. is anybody at the federal reserve worried about deflation? >>well, some people like tim bullard just the other day was talking about the very low rate of inflation. 1.3%, if you use the index the fed watches. that might be an excuse to keep up the pace of quantitative easing for longer than you might have expected. i think, bill, for the fed, the thing that's a little bit more worrisome has got to be the latest data points that suggests the weakness that began in march seems to be bleeding into april. the weaker than expected philadelphia fed index that we saw today, for example. >> but shouldn't the market rally, then? because that would mean even more quantitative easing. >> i think that the market, by now, realizes that the fed can do qe again and again and again. and it does not make up for the lack of vigor in the economy and the lack of topline growth you're seeing from
and not confident of sustained improvement. >> substantial improvement is what many fed watchers and market watchers are trying to figure out what that means. sustained improvement, substantial improvement and that's the question with every press meeting. we did learn a lot. it is not clear that incrementally it will be that contained. >> it is a bad unemployment number. >> and that's probably the more important point of all. >> we have them. >> you know what? in months past on the day the minutes have been released the markets have been spooked for the last two releases of the fed minutes. people said oh, my god, the market went down those days. >> you know what? release them at 9:00. stop with the 2:00 nonsense. stop trying to manipulate the stock market with the number, i know they don't want to manipulate, but that's the effect. the congressional staffers. the congress people have to file their trades. let's get the info. >> you're following minute by minute and you are on so often during the course of the trading day, and i want to take a look back and see if there was any move. >> i'll have to
be very common to expect a 5, 10% correction, but the fed is still very accommodating, we still have great value, so we are still putting money to work. we're still overweight equities and still overweight real estate, especially international. >> real estate and equities. jeff, how do you see it? >> we're bullish on equities, but we're not putting money to work right now. like the last three years, there's been a sell in may and go away, and we think there's a correction coming. >> how significant a correction would you expect? >> you know, maybe 10 to 15% and that would be an entry point for us that we would feel comfortable, as we're bullish longer term. >> you're waiting for better prices to get back into this market. chris, how are your customers doing? you've got high-end customers putting money to work in terms of the upper end. what are they saying? >> rate now, they're starting to improve in terms of the outlook overall on transparency. it sounds lake a crazy thing to say, but certainly we're getting baby fixi ines along the way. north korea happens, we knew it was out there, but
more gains. could the fed increase its easing policies instead of winding them down. we'll look at the possibilities with a former federal reserve governor. >>> and why shouldn't free market conservative david coke buy the l.a. times? he'll save the papers, improve the newsroom and put in a better editorial policy. we'll debate. "the kudlow report" begins right now. >>> first up, marking the first 100 days of the second term, president obama met a much more combative white house press corps at a news conference today. he is tackling everything from the red line for syria, obamacare's rollout train wreck, and even whether his agenda is failing. chief washington correspondent, john harwood joins us with the details. good evening, john. >> good evening, larry. on your earlier question, he gave straight answers, but didn't much news. what the president was doing was trying to put himself in the narrative on a slow week in washington with congress out. and as presidents often do, especially in second term, he found himself defending against things that have proven more difficult than
the appraisal of the economy and fed policy. san francisco federal reserve president john williams said the fed could start tapering its $85 billion a month asset purchase program by this summer. wall street promptly lost two 1/4 trillion -- two and a quarter billion dollars in market cap. moody's chief economist will be with us to assess all of that. the state of texas looking for the killer or killers of two of its prosecutors tonight. another prosecutor says enough. he will not be continuing his prosecution. we will have the latest for you on what is happening in the state of texas. a texas state government threatening to sue the federal government of the united nations arms treaty is ratified. we will be joined by texas attorney general greg abbott's and president obama taking his gun-control campaign on the road to colorado, a state that is already taking the assault on the second amendment into its own hands. foxes and politics other, democratic strategist. we begin tonight with president obama on the road tonight campaigning for and control and raising big money for his party. president
investors are terrified about the removal of support by the fed, you know, the withdrawal of monetary accommodation. and it's something that always causes enormous amounts of volatility and consternation when it happens. but, remember, when that happens, it's typically because the economy is growing reasonably, at a reasonably good clip. this is sub-par growth by the standards of past recoveries to be sure, but it is growth and it is durable. so i think that the stock market is not overvalued by any means. i think it's reasonable to expect a pause and a direction. but that isn't something that would keep me on the sidelines. >> let me ask you something about this wall street legend that they say fell in may and go away. i think the statistics go back to world war ii saying that if you sell your stocks in may and then come back in october and re-buy, that you will do better. given the momentum in the markets that we've seen so far this year, do you think that legend will hold true? and what should investors do? >> you know, it's a -- it's a sporting call. we've seen it really to a grea
.com/afterthebell. whether the fed's money printing programs just aren't working. we'll reed your responses a little later on this hour. >>> plus the president has released some details of his new budget. not only does it go after upper earnings but savvy investors and perhaps your 401(k). could the government get involved with that? well the president wants to. we'll tell you how. we're live from the white house with details. >>> we're heading back to liz claman live on the raymond james trading floor with some very special guests of liz, who is coming up? >> in fact the, david, the man who called the eightsy seven -- '87 crash correctly and called the market low of 2009 in march is on the trading floor. jeff saut is the chief investment strategist here at raymond james. what he is calling for next. stay tuned we're live never st. petersburg, florida, where they're thinking all things money. stay tuned. we're coming right back with jeff saut. ♪ . [ male announcer ] at his current pace, bob will retire when he's 153, which would be fine if bob were a vampire. but he's not. ♪ he's an architect with two
. the rich already know they are roiled fed. i don't know what point the rich are finally paying a fair share but they're not there yet. they're not even close. mr. president, what will it be to let rich folks be? if not a combined top rate of 50% now, what will it take? 60%? 70%. back to the good ol' days of 90%? hard to say this much is not. you say you don't want to fix our spending problem on the backs of the middle class. so you clearly decided to keep hitting up the rich and kick them in the ass. at least while you still have them because at the rate you're going, mr. president, you won't for long. none of this is surprise to hear house speaker john boehner tell it, reacted this way. >> he does deserve some credit for some incremental entitlement reforms. they outlined in his budget but i would hope that he would not hold who stands these modest reforms for his demand for bigger tax hikes. neil: somewhere boehner has to cobble together or somehow, some sort of a deal with the president who simply won't budge on those taxes even as the speaker already has. so what is the speaker to do? w
a month of bond buying. if we were to see the fed wind down this stimulus by year end or next year, does that create a problem for the market on top of what you're seeing is already early stages of recession? >> so first on the market, yeah, the fed is obviously a big player in this market psychology. and just it is a fact that corporate earnings growth, while quite high, operating to earnings growth, it contracted in q 3 and q4. we're seeing some economic impact. but the stock market doesn't want to fight the fed, and i'm not going to argue with that at all. with respect to the economy, which is quite different from the fed, here let's talk about exit strategy. this will be i think the fourth time we're bringing this up since the end of the great recession? it started in 2010, then in 2011, then with the 2012 and now starting the exit strategy talk again. they're going have to walk it back, given our view, because if they like other central banks keep double do you think on this policy of more and more support, trying to push off recessions, they're going to -- they have -- they're kind
gambling and somehow the fed takes his foot for the private market. also in deal nugs this morning, michael dell is trying to take private, i guess. he's more energized for the future of dell than ever and he claims the company's best days are still ahead. that letter was filed with the s.e.c. and i did ultimately write my column, guys, about this dell situation. >> i saw in this morning. >> after i was previewing -- >> i was going to say, you told -- >> after previewing and practices what would i want to write yesterday, but i've got to a separate conclusion, which is that if michael dell doesn't roll into the blackstone bit, do you believe -- they want to break up my company. i think they're going to hurt the hundred thousand employees. this is not for the hired hand man, this is a founder the. >> and michael dell's interests don't necessarily align with the other shareholders. >> and there's the flip. >> although you start thinking about it as the company, the employees, the shareholder and if their foerchs don't go in the same direction. >> i just like watching the amatny of a column be
. the economy is getting worse. but the fed is all in. they're at 85 a month. now, maybe some people like jim bulllard are talking about doing more, but that's not on the fed's table right now. what's on their table is potentially tapering out of the 85 a month when the market wants more. the market is stuck. they want more from the fed, because the economy is weakening, or they want the economy to rebound and nothing's happening and we jump around all over the place. >> warren, what do you think? you've been constructive on this market all through the first quarter. you felt like there was more to go here. but do you feel like the psychology is changing with the volatility that we've seen this week? >> i'll tell you, this week has been a little bit troubling, and i have been pretty bullish up until this point. when you tend to see days like this, where the day after day, up and down bid on the dow, 100-plus point move on any given day, that's a sign that this market is truly struggling. >> are you rethinking your bullish position, at least for the short-term? >> a little bit. i think the thi
to bring it to a vote. >> thank you. we got a big oops at the fed today. >> all early indications were that it was accidental. at least one person received the minutes exactly at 2:00. that was just the release of the minutes on the wrong day. here's what we know. they were released around 2:00 p.m. yesterday to around 100 congressional staffers. the fed contacting the sec and cfdc regarding any trading that might have surrounded it. yields were headed higher. it was about a basis point or two. then you can see that its floundered early this morning. what's actually in the minutes? what's about that? many noted the meeting took place before that weak jobs report came out. >> we have been on this story for a long time. >> and the tapering is going to be seen as the move. >> right, right. >> but the weird part. >> we have also talked to other fed officials who say that they are not changing that forecast. if you get another. >> let's hope we aren't in some ways or another. >> we give an entrepreneur 60 seconds in the hole that venture capital will give him maybe millions. it is all comin
will ask you a little bit about the stock market and the fed minutes in a moment. steve, let me begin with you on the president's remarks. quite simply, he says the numbers work. >> in his mind, the numbers work. more spending in the here and now and more taxes in the here and now. that is not what this economy needs. it is killing europe, it is killing japan and it will slow us down. connell: the liberals are angry with him. we have to make manageable cuts. you heard the president talking about that. >> for the republicans to get identified with cutting social security benefits, that is just walking into a trap. they are changing the cost of living formula. the cost of living index is not adequate enough for people, the government has already been gaming that system. it is not the cure for social security. republicans should make it clear. we do not need to cut current benefits. we need a system for young people. connell: the stock market is hitting record highs again. i will point out that the president did not talk specifically about something else we know is in the plan. the buffe
. thank you. next, an exit plan for the feds. one of the country's top nancial professors knows how to bring the money printing to an e without killing markets. he is here with his details. also, an exxon oil pipeline spill. it could be just what critics need to stop keystone in its tracks. we have more "money" coming up next. >> what i do know is that this market lives and dies by the last word of the fed and those people have no clue what they are doing. ben bernanke the most dangerous man ever to hold a high financial office in the history of the united states. adam: that was former reagan budget director david stockman not holding back on what he really thinks of the federal banks and the monetary easing. they are pressing ahead with the 85 billion-dollar a month asset purchase program. all experts are taling about is when will it stop and how can it stopbout growing the economy and the markets into another recession. welcome to the show, professor, we appreciate being here. >> thank you for having me. adam: why do we have to have this exit strategy? >> well, here is the proble
. >> this market is and dies by the last word of the fed and the people at the fed had no idea what they are doing. bernanke is the most dangerous man to hold financial office in the history of the united states. stuart: some strong words. let's go to nicole petallides. nicole: good morning. we are kicking off a new quarter. we kicked it off in a stellar fashion. today is the first trading day of the new month. the dow is down a quarter of a 1%. as far as what we are seeing on the big board, we are seeing the dollar pulled back. down arrows after we got solid economic news. connell: thank you. let's talk more about the comments from david stockman. the idea of a market crash that could be coming. michael thompson is here with the in studio. thank you for coming in. good to see you. this is not some great man, this is a guy with a long history. an advisor to ronald reagan. on and on. >> i think they are great. first of all, it gets a good conversation going. we are living in the greatest fixed income bubble in history has ever known. connell: a bubble in the bond market. >> we do not know the end o
the budget. the second, i call the serial bubble machine, which is what i think about the fed. the two are highly interactive. the point i would make, and there's a lot of history that goes back into this in the book is that when you get to the point where the central bank is so managed and manipulated, the whole financial market, the entire financial system, minimarkets, that markets, and all risk asset markets, none of the prices in the financial markets mean anything. they are not price discovery in the old free-market cents, cash flows, what is your contract say -- none of that is extant anymore. it has all been crushed, destroyed, and killed by a central bank that is printing money so rapidly that puts so many puts it under the market, that greenspan put, the bernanke put, all of the rest, let the markets are doing today is simply -- it is the work of a huge casino of players who are essentially front running the fed, pricing every word, every nuance, every smoke signal that comes out of their statements every month and in between, pricing throughout arbitrage exchange that they'r
a total recovery. is this another case of bad news actually being good news because of the fed? we'll debate it. here is the real concern in jobs. more and more people are simply dropping out of the work force. they are vanishing. many are young and discouraged. wait until you also see the scary spike in people now living on disability. are you ready for the budget battle to resume in washington? reports say the president is ready to cut entitlements but only if the republicans give in on even more tax hikes. still, even democrats are outraged. this could be even very nasty fight to come. "the kudlow report" starts right now. >>> all right. so much to do tonight. thank you very much for being with us. before i get to the so-called no bad news market let's goat tet e clear bad news. hampton pearson breaking it down for you in washington. >> reporter: good evening, brian. the march headline numbers were quite a retreat from big job gains we saw in january and february. employers adding just 88,000 jobs in march, the fewest in nine months. among the biggest losers the retail sector cu
. let's mention the fed. the fed is meeting. they hunkered down. tomorrow they come out. any expectations from traders about what the fed might do? >> i think the expectation is there will not be any major policy change, although vernacular will probably change. that's what we're looking for. the labor market, they need to come out and say it is frustrating. they need to say something with regards to inflation discussion that we're talking about. is it disinflation or deflation? and the game-changer, something that will really help everybody, is maybe a new exit strategy for them to be a coupon clipper, no sale. but continue to be coupon clippers. let the balance sheet run up. that is what i think people are looking at. david: wouldn't that alone spook the market, larry? >> i think it would but at some point this balance sheet is so gigantic, so enormous, we have to experience dealing with a balance sheet this big, at some point we have to come to terms with dealing with it. david: so, peter, if all the fed does is clip coupons, don't buy anymore, they let the bonds expire wo
everything is hunky-dory why do i get the feeling the feds are bracing for something scary? it is not what they're saying. it is what they're demanding. why i'm worried because after what i share i just found out, why you're going to be worried too. welcome everybody, glad to have you, i'm neil cavuto. riddle me this, batman, if the banks just passed with flying colors we're told as late as stress test. why is it congress are forcing banks to hang on to at least a half a trillion bucks? i thought banks already had more than enough cash on hand to weather any storm, even a doozy of a meltdown like the one we had back in 2008. why this call for putting up still more cash now? what is it these guys in washington are seeing now or more ominously fearing now? then it got me thinking which is always dangerous. why does the federal reserve keep putting out reassuring statement, bond buying program won't be ending anytime soon, relax, relax even as it insists economy is doing just fine? me thinks maybe things are not so fine. i'm telling you congress wouldn't be telling banks to set aside more cas
of this rally is right now. because i think the real impetus behind this rally is what the fed's doing with their quantitative easing and zero interest rates. and i think that's the real story i think the market's focused on. so any setback whether it be a weak employment report like last week. or whether it be weaker economic data will use that as a setback to buy because they are more focused on the 85 billion a month the fed is purchasing and what that's doing and what liquidity that's providing to the market. > > and how significant is this? cyprus is being forced to sell off some of its gold for the bailout money. does that matter to the market? > >maybe if you're long gold but i think at the end of the day gold is probably backing up some for an accumulation. i would not call this by any stretch of the imagination the end of the bull market in gold. so again that's a short term effect in my view. > >what do you think was behind the oil slide yesterday? > > the weak demand. and this is the real dichotomy of the market. they lowered the global demand for oil and of course oil has b
point that will support the stock market. >> and a big guessing game right now is when the fed will start to gradually pull back on all of the liquidity it's been adding to this market. when do you think that will be? >> we're watching jobs to figure that out. the payroll numbers are weaker in march. we think as long as the jobless rate remain up at 7.5, 8% range, the fed will continue to implement qe3. >> thanks for coming by. really appreciate it. >> well, some of the growth sited today is being attributed to the federal policy we were just talking about. and while those record-low rates may be beneficial to some, they may be hurting others. bank of america became some of the highlighting in a low-rate environment. sf servicing more loans and making less money from them. a report card for the good and the bad of the fed's low rates! the housing market, especially mortgage borrowers, have been the biggest beneficiary that began in 2008. close to 20 million mortgages have been refinanced since then. mortgage applications were up about 5% last week and the mortgage banker's asso
of performance trust investment joins us now. good to have you on the show. we are ahead of the fed. what is the bond predicting about this meeting? - you have seen yields get back to the lowest they have been really since december. the 10- year about a 167 yield or so, or just below 170. that is about as low as it has been since december and last fall. what the market is really telling you as we look forward to this fed meeting, the start of this two- day fed meeting, is that they are expecting the fed to continue their bond-buying program, and to continue to be the ones driving the bus. - what is the skew in high- yielding bonds saying about stocks? - the picture in stocks, we are getting a lot of what i would call false positives in the market. you see the stock market at its all-time highs, the unemployment rate is getting a little bit better, and really, if you looked at what's underlying that, the unemployment rate, you have people leaving the workforce every year. 10,000 people a day are turning 62 and leaving the workforce. so that could be a false positive. and then qe3 is drivin
. 130 s&p earnings and two central banks including the fed, a jobs number, you name it. futures reacting to personal spending for march which was better th better than expected. europe's up as well and it does form a coalition government with enrico letta, the new prime minister. our road map begins with a slew of reasons to hang on to your hat and not the least of which is your jobs report on friday. a lot more economic data is on tap, too. the ecb, earnings from heavy hitters in tech, autos and drugs. >> you heard it here first. we reported this on friday, jc penney this morning saying it has a commitment from goldman sachs to borrow $1.75 billion in the bond market. the executive jumble at j.p. morgan continues with the coo. >>, they're returning to passenger service. >> we have a barrage of economic data, the central banks in the spotlight and the thursday's the day for the ecb, will they cut rates? of course, the busy earnings calendar continues. facebook, pfizer, gm all set to report later in the week. we are going move from this macro to micropicture which has not been as positive
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